First blog, February 4, 2019
This is the first blog in a series of blogs in which I set out my vision on the current Climate Agreement that the Dutch government is trying to secure. The current Dutch Climate Agreement aims to reduce the annual CO₂ emissions of the Netherlands by 49% in 2030, compared to the emissions as they were in 2018.
The government of the Netherlands hopes that this agreement will inspire other countries to follow their example. I think the agreement is not sufficient and needs supportive policies to combat climate change and make a real impact. In my blogs I will describe how we can improve the actions, whilst reducing the cost for Dutch citizens. I hope you find my thoughts original, practical and feasible. Please distribute this message to all your family, friends and acquaintances. Follow our Facebook group 'Green Musketeer', and please share your own views by leaving your comments!
The current Dutch Climate Agreement can be improved
Will the Climate Agreement - which will cost Dutch society 20 to 25 billion Euros a year, about 3,000 Euros per household each year - prevent climate change?
The answer to that question is a simple 'no'. The Climate Agreement, as it is proposed by the Dutch government today, is actually just as useful as keeping a leaky bucket under a leaking pipe.
For this reason, I decided to write these blogs; because I believe that we are obliged to stop climate change for our children. And we can stop climate change from happening. But not with the currently proposed Climate Agreement.
The generally accepted view is that climate change is caused by the elevated CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere. Although we hear about 'CO₂ reduction' every day, we are really being fooled by these words. The draft Climate Agreement takes steps to reduce our annual CO₂ emissions, but the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere - and that is what might cause climate change - is not decreased as a consequence of implementing the Dutch Climate Agreement. The CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere only increases 'slower' by implementing the Climate Agreement. It is therefore nothing more than 'postponement of the execution'.
Do climate experts not know this? Of course, they do. But if this were explained correctly, the Climate Agreement would lose the support from the Dutch population. The fact that the IPCC (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) already assumes that the average temperature on earth will continue to rise in the coming 30 years, highlights that the Climate Agreement will not have a material impact in stopping climate change from happening. The IPCC hopes that the temperature increase will be limited to 1.5 °C or 2 °C, but has already announced in its emergency call that it can become even warmer.
How is this possible? It's like this: according to the scientists, the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere must remain at least equal or decrease from today’s levels to stop climate change. But that does not happen. Let’s run some calculations: the Netherlands currently emits 163 million tons of CO₂ annually. If the Climate Agreement were to work, this would be 49% less by 2030, which is equal to 83 million tons of emissions. This means that on average we still emit 122 million tons of CO₂ per year until the year 2030. By 2050, the Dutch government wants its population to emit only 5% of today’s CO₂ emissions. This means that they will reduce from 163 million tons of CO₂ to 8 million tons of CO₂ emissions in the year 2050. Nevertheless, this means that we emit an average of 77.5 million tons of CO₂ per year until 2050.
Is the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere actually reduced when such enormous annual emissions still happen? No. The concentration will still increase, only slower than if we continue emitting at the current level. This means that the Climate Agreement does not prevent climate change. Hence the alarm from the IPCC. That's why I write these blogs. That is why Dutch citizens should refuse to pay 3,000 Euros per household every year to fund a ‘solution’ that doesn’t stop climate change.
Can we take a different approach?
Yes, follow these blogs and spread the message.
The title of our next blog is 'Does climate change really exist?'
On 8 October 2018, the IPCC (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) issued an emergency call to all countries to reduce their CO₂ emissions by at least 50% by 2030. The Netherlands wants to comply with this by means of a Climate Agreement. Pieter Hoff is of the opinion that the Climate Agreement needs additional policies to achieve 0% net CO₂ emissions by 2030 and that this supporting policy can be implemented much more efficiently, quicker and less costly than the current proposals that are included in the proposed Dutch Climate Agreement.